Pre-Conference Workshop
FORECASTING PRICES UNDER CAPACITY MARKETS
MONDAY, June 4, 2007
1:00 PM –5:00 PM
Capacity market mechanisms will have far-ranging impacts not only on the development and financing of new generation, but also on the revenue streams of existing projects. In this workshop, the instructors will provide a detailed discussion of the technical issues involved in forecasting capacity prices. We will begin with an analysis of the most well-understood mechanism, that of the NYISO, and then note how the different features of the next round of capacity markets, represented by ISO-NE and PJM, will impact
the process of making forecasts of future capacity prices. By following this procedure attendees will be able to understand how such forecasts can be developed for capacity markets still in development. This is a remarkable opportunity to explore the technical details of forecasting for capacity markets with three of the nation’s leading experts in this field.
- Building Forecasting Models of Capacity Markets
- Data Needed to Initialize Model
- Testing Models; Uncertainties
- Understanding How to Design Different Capacity Market Models
- Utilizing Capacity Price Forecasts to Provide Insights into:
• Asset Financing and Valuation
• Bidding Strategies
• Opportunities for Investments and Power Sales
Lead Instructor:
Seth G. Parker, Vice President & Principal,
LEVITAN & ASSOCIATES, INC.
Presenters:
Roger Bacon, Manager of Market Design, ISO-NE (tentative)
John Charlton, Program Coordinator, Resource Adequacy, NYISO
Other expert speakers to be announced—check back for updates.
